CO3
Coordinator
Prof. Sorin Solomon, Foundazione ISI, Italy.
Participants
- Italy: Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna
- France: Universite de Paris 2
- Poland: University of Warsaw
- Israel: Bar Ilan University
- Italy: Universita di Roma ‘La Sapienza’
Description
There have been many attempts to model complex systems in terms of their component parts but with only partial success. It is commonly believed that such failings are due to a lack of knowledge about the components and how they interact.
Conventional modelling tools use differential equations which treat the properties of the system (such as the economy) as smooth and continuous, like a fluid, rather than a collection of freely acting individuals. The CO3 research team uses a new type of model, the ‘AB’ model, which recognises this difference. A key outcome is that random fluctuations, or ‘noise’, can, in some cases, grow to change the collective behaviour of the whole system. Such rare events are, in fact, the main motor driving changes in collective behaviour.
Methods developed in CO3 will lead to a better understanding of how the behaviour of complex systems emerges from the cumulative effect of numerous individual agents. Their findings will be applied by many other workers in economics, social sciences and biology and will have a very practical impact on economic planning, health and capital investment.